Toby’s Corner out, Derby Kitten in// Archarcharch gets unintentional official work// Kentucky Derby draw nears

Summary:

Toby’s Corner marks the 69^th promising horse off the Derby Trail, according to the respected and mysterious @DerbyContenders account on Twitter. He came up lame in his left hind leg after Sunday’s work in Maryland.  Derby Kitten takes spot #20 with Sway Away waiting in the wings. Javier Castellano gets the mount// No serious workouts were scheduled today, but the clocker decided to record Archarcharch’s gallop as an official move.  Everyone was surprised, including his trainer “Jinks” Fires. The half mile time was a slow 52 flat, but considering he was just coming off a bullet move from Friday and not really supposed to work in the first place, the gallop (or whatever it was) should help him stay fit for the upcoming mile and a quarter test// Recent reports on Uncle Mo seemed to suggest the probability of a defection from the Derby was fading with each day, but Tuesday brought more uncertainty as owner Mike Repole indicated he could still scratch as late as Saturday afternoon// Among today’s gallopers, Mike Welch highlights Mucho Macho Man, Soldat, and Shackleford who all continue to thrive// Tomorrow is the big draw which will be televised on Versus starting at 4pm// more... 

Archarcharch impresses in work// Decisive Moment so-so// Soldat ready to go

Summary:

Archarcharch was the star of the day for Friday April 29^th based on his lightning 5-furlong work. Mike Welsch claims the move was so good he now considers the colt to be among the top Kentucky Derby contenders// Decisive Moment did not fair as well.  Not only was the overall clocking mediocre, apparently he was switching leads several times down the stretch// Soldat put in his final work before the Derby in Florida.  There are no official clockers this time of year at Palm Meadows, but according to this trainer Kiaran McLaughlin Soldat worked a half in 49 and galloped out in 1.01:40.  McLaughlin was just short of exuberant// Mike Welsch commented that Santiva and Twice The Appeal did not leave a good impression during their gallops and jogs, while Uncle Mo continues to look strong.

As expected, Garret Gomez was given the mount on Master Of Hounds.  The rumor just last weekend was that Calvin Borel would get the job, but he apparently decided to go with a colt that was definite at the time in Twice The Appeal.  That decision caused a little drama between the connections of Twice The Appeal and his former jockey Santiago Reyes.  The LA Daily news reports Reyes’ agent was not pleased over the late announcement, not only because it’s the Derby, but also because they gave up six mounts at Hollywood thinking they would be in Louisville// more…

Zito Dialed In for Kentucky Derby// Master Of Hounds likely, Mr. Commons could sneak in

Summary:

Dialed In’s official four furlong workout time at Palm Meadows Thursday was a solid 48.40, but Mike Welsch at the Daily Racing Form claims he was “never asked to exert himself at any time”. While some question whether Dialed In’s light workout pattern and short four-furlong moves will have him ready for the mile and a quarter test May 7^th, Zito claims the horse is ultra fit, ready for the challenge, and won’t be short.  Soldat, also stationed at Palm Meadows, will have his final work Friday and then join Dialed In on the flight to Louisville Saturday// Master Of Hounds was officially withdrawn from Newmarket’s 2,000 Guineas, which means the Kentucky Derby is very likely.  Garrett Gomez is still considered the frontrunner to get the mount// Archarcharch and Decisive Moment are set to put in their final works Friday// With all of the recent movement and defections among the all important graded earnings list, lightly raced Mr. Commons now sits at spot #23.  What was once an unthinkable scenario for a colt with only $120,000 in earnings, qualifying for the Derby now doesn’t seem entirely far-fetched.  Trainer John Shirreffs decided to work the recent Santa Anita Derby third-place runner an extended seven furlongs at Hollywood Park just in case he stretches out to a mile and a quarter May 7th// TVG is reporting that Derby winning jockey Mike Smith will have the mount on Twinspired// I’ve always enjoyed reading the transcripts from the DRF chats just days before the Derby, seeing as it always provides valuable info from some of the game’s best handicappers.  Christmas came a little early as DRF laid out several Derby questions for their columnists. A must read// more…

The Factor returns to track for first time since surgery, uncertain for Kentucky Derby// Nehro, Comma work

Summary:

The backside whispers of The Factor recently undergoing minor surgery for flipping his soft palate turned out to be true as Bob Baffert confirmed to the Daily Racing Form on Monday.  The Factor was out on the Churchill Downs track for his first gallop since the myectomy and appeared to be moving well.  As for entering him in the Derby, Baffert was non-committal and opened the door for just about every possible next race scenario: Derby, Preakness, Met Mile, sprint, and "insert race name here"// While Nehro’s official workout was clocked at a slow 1:02.80, Mike Welsch claims the colt looked comfortable on the muddy Churchill track.  He did have his head cocked towards the infield and had to navigate through some traffic nearing the finish. In the workout report video he also touches on several key works and observations from the last few days.  Interesting notes are that Stay Thirsty and Pants on Fire did not gallop out very well and Archarcharch didn’t seem to like the muddy surface. Most impressive of all to him was Soldat last Thursday at Palm Meadows// No word on Comma To The Top’s workout at Hollywood.  The final time was not quick, but no other details available at the moment.

J P’s Gusto is still possible for the Kentucky Derby and a decision should be announced by Wednesday// Mike Watchmaker handicaps this year’s Derby preps, which offers a unique angle.  Although the lowest odds are not for the Arkansas Derby, he does note it as his first preference, which I would agree// There is still an outside chance Master Of Hounds will race this Saturday in the Two Thousand Guineas as opposed to the Derby// Uncle Mo and Midnight Interlude are scheduled to work at Churchill Tuesday (weather permitting)// An updated graded earnings list is linked below and Astrology is back on, although as we reported yesterday he is still doubtful for the Derby//

Several nice background articles today: Brilliant Speed’s upbringing at Live Oak Stud, Rosie Napravnik’s confidence and success in Louisiana, and breeder Carole Rio’s tales of Mucho Macho Man// more…

Mixed signals on The Factor// Soldat sharp// Nakatani goes with the “now” horse

Summary:

George Bolton, co-owner of The Factor, feels it’s unlikely his colt will be entered in the Kentucky Derby.  However, a recent quote from Bob Baffert suggests the door is by no means closed, as he raved how well The Factor galloped at Churchill// Soldat had a sharp work at Palm Meadows that had trainer Kiaran McLaughlin thinking roses.  If the rain never ends in Louisville, The French Soldier could get some serious consideration based on his January effort in the slop at Gulfstream. Alan Garcia was also confirmed as the Derby rider// In other jockey news, Corey Nakatani has chosen to ride Nehro over Comma To The Top// With impending rain in Louisville Saturday, Animal Kingdom’s workout will be moved to Keeneland// Todd Pletcher reports Uncle Mo’s appetite is getting better// As a point of clarification, I said yesterday Silver Medallion would enter the Derby picture with a win or place in Saturday’s Lexington Stakes.  A place would put him in spot #22, so no guarantee, but he would still have a realistic shot with impending defections// Aidan O’Brien still has May 7^th circled on the calendar for Master Of Hounds and plans to ship the horse to Louisville May 3^rd, which doesn’t give him much training time on dirt// more…

Santa Anita Derby complexion changes// Uncle Mo set for Saturday workout?// More blinkers for Arkansas Derby

Summary:

The Derby trail lost a big one today in Premier Pegasus, who suffered a hairline fracture during a Thursday gallop.  Not only was his last race in the San Felipe spectacular, but his connections offered an intriguing story for the always layered Kentucky Derby picture. As far as hype, he was pegged as a top 3 candidate in most polls and considered a legitimate challenger to Uncle Mo. Now as the Daily Racing Form explains, the Santa Anita Derby is a “whole new race”// Mike Watchmaker points out that Uncle Mo’s low Beyer speed figure from his last race is still faster than any Beyer earned by his upcoming competition in the Wood Memorial.  Sounds like he just has to show up// Add Sway Away as yet another possible entry in the Arkansas Derby who will try blinkers.  He joins Elite Alex and J P’s Gusto as horses that will try the hood in hopes to change their luck// Shackleford and Stay Thirsty were the latest Derby hopefuls to settle in at Churchill Downs// more…

Dialed In earns 93 Beyer// Blue Grass field looking crowded// The Factor quick in 6 panel workout

Summary:

Dialed In received a 93 Beyer speed figure from his win in Sunday’s Florida Derby.  While that puts him below other contenders’ winning numbers, the Daily Racing Form points out 3 of last 6 Kentucky Derby winners fired sub 100 Beyers in their final preps.  Zito is in no hurry to ship the colt to Kentucky, while second place Shackleford and fourth Soldat could head to Louisville soon.  Stay Thirsty, Uncle Mo’s stablemate who finished an unimpressive 7th, is also pointing for the Derby and will ship to Churchill on Wednesday// Many new rankings today.  Uncle Mo, Premier Pegasus, and Dialed In assume the top three spots in most (including mine), in no particular order.  I’ve noticed Jaycito sits at #4 in several, which is something I’m having a hard time understanding given his bland last performance and horrendous Breeders Cup. The usually glass-half-full Steve Haskin has surprisingly nothing good to say about To Honor and Serve’s Florida Derby, which I tend to agree// 10 to 11 colts are probable for the Blue Grass Stakes.  A majority of those have turf or synthetic backgrounds, which means none would be taken too seriously in the Kentucky Derby, aside from Santiva// Watch Me Go, winner of the Tampa Bay Derby, is definite for the Illinois Derby on Saturday// The latest graded earnings list was released.  It appears the magic number for making the Derby will be around $250,000, but that’s always a moving target.  The connections of Shackleford are keeping fingers crossed for no long shot wins over the next two weekends and that Master Of Hounds and Comma To The Top stay home// more…

Dialed In up in time for Florida Derby, field called into question// Uncle Mo ‘perfect’ in work, favored in KDFW Pool 3

Dialed In wins Florida Derby 4/3/11                                                                                                         Photo: Horsephotos.com

Summary:

General consensus was the Florida Derby offered the most loaded field of all Kentucky Derby preps so far.  General consensus seems to suggest it did not live up to expectations. Yet, peel back the layers and there was more to the outcome than unimpressive splits and dissapointing results by highly touted Derby contenders.  68-to-1 shot Shackleford finished second, and his ability to almost steal the race on the lead combined with his unappreciated past performances were the main reasons some were calling the race a sham. However, dissecting his prior race (with some of the same foes) shows he had excuses: worst post, bad break, raced wide.  He redeemed himself on Sunday by holding off most of a stellar field.  For a horse that showed promise early in the year, he may be peaking at the right time.  Hopefully he has enough earnings to make the Kentucky Derby gate.   

As for the winner, the final time may suggest otherwise, but flip the coin over and you have an impressive closer who did what no other horse was able to do at Gulfstream Sunday: pass all others from starting far off the pace.  As we’ve seen in some recent Kentucky Derbies, that style can be an advantage where the pace is usually strong.  Nick Zito was emotional and as someone who circles the first Saturday of May on the calendar bigger than anyone else, it’s nice to see the trainer have yet another shot.  Soldat and To Honor And Serve, the latter who Garret Gomez stated he could have given a better trip, will most likely move on to the Derby with lighter bandwagons// Travelin Man was a clear winner in the undercard Swale Stakes.  Todd Petcher indicated they'll stretch him out in the Cliff's Edge Derby Trial, which means no Derby Fever// Uncle Mo worked a quick 4 furlongs in 48.20 today in preparation for Saturday’s Wood Memorial.  Pletcher called it “perfect” and also sent out Kentucky Derby contender Brethren who worked the fastest of all others at 5 furlongs// Speaking of Uncle Mo, he closed as the 3-1 favorite in the Kentucky Derby Future Pool. Dialed In went all the way down to 5-1, which is probably close to what you’ll get on Derby Day// Wilburn, a popular recent maiden winner from Santa Anita, didn’t like dirt in his face from his allowance test and finished off the board// more…

To Honor and Mott featured// PrePeg shoots a bullet for Santa Anita Derby// Florida Derby picks

Summary:

I’ve posted a lot of handicapper picks for the Florida Derby over the last several days.  In a profession geared towards taking a stance even if it means ignoring other reasonable possibilities, it’s refreshing to read Gary West’s analysis. With young three-year-olds still maturing, going new distances, and experiencing different pace scenarios he says it would be best if experts sometimes said, “I don’t know”.  He still makes his picks in the end, like any handicapper should, but it illustrates the numerous angles one can take in the Florida Derby// Several nice background articles on To Honor And Serve and Bill Mott today// A decision has finally been made for Jaycito. Trainer Bob Baffert has opted to stay home in the Santa Anita Derby.  He’ll face Premier Pegasus who worked a brisk 5 furlongs in 59:20 today.  It was the fastest of all works at the distance. Trainer Myung Cho says the long delay between his last race and first work was by design seeing as the horse routinely gallops 2 miles.  There are some really striking photos of PrePeg and other Santa Anita Derby contenders this morning taken by Alex Evers. I’ve put the link below// Watch Me Go, who didn’t enter the Florida Derby as planned due to a scope with mucus, may go the Illinois Derby route. That race’s field is questionable- yes, both in field size and overall Kentucky Derby potential// more…

Zito oozing with confidence ahead of Florida Derby, Ragozin numbers suggest otherwise// KDFW Pool open, The Factor bet down

Summary:

Nick Zito couldn’t be higher on a horse than Dialed In.  If the “Gift from God” doesn’t come flying home to win the Florida Derby be prepared for a signature depressing post-race interview from the trainer// Zito must not be a Rag guy. According to Ragozin numbers, Stay Thirsty could be the value play of the Florida Derby and Dialed In is a toss-out.  Handicapper picks are pretty spread out between the three main attractions and Flashpoint// The Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool #3 opened today with Uncle Mo and The Factor getting the most attention.  The latter is currently down to 9-2 from starting at 6-1// For the Arkansas Derby, Caleb’s Posse and The Factor are confirmed// Impressive allowance winner Prime Cut could go to the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland and look to the Preakness after that.  Wilkinson, sixth-place in the Louisiana Derby may go to the Blue Grass Stakes// more…

Florida Derby features strongest field yet, pace should be hot// Comma To The Top removed from KDFW Pool

Summary:

Today’s Florida Derby draw made if official: we have the strongest Derby prep of the season thus far. Soldat, Dialed In, and To Honor And Serve offer three marquee names in one race, something we’re not used to seeing in recent three-year-old stakes. With the connections of Flashpoint deciding to stretch out the distance-questionable colt, the pace scenario just got a lot quicker and more beneficial for closer Dialed In. While many believe Flashpoint should not have entered, it will be good for handicappers with an eye towards the Derby to see how favored Soldat handles a stiff pace on dirt// Although Comma To The Top has been removed from the Future Pool in light of comments from his trainer not intending to run in the Derby, don’t rule him out completely.  There are several quotes from the article below that suggest the door is not closed// For the Wood Memorial starring Uncle Mo, it looks like only 4 total probable entries.  However, the field size could expand up to 10 if and when some trainers make up their minds// Works today for the Arkansas Derby included J P’s Gusto in a bullet with blinkers and Sway Away.  D. Wayne Lukas is high on Saratoga Red for that race// The purse for the Illinois Derby was raised to $300,000.  Might not seem like much, but it may make a difference once the dust settles for graded earnings// We knew there was a possibility European runner Master Of Hounds could join the Derby, but now there is another “potential” entrant from across seas in War Pact.  However, I’m not exactly sure why that’s a story seeing as he has $0 graded earnings and no plans to run in any eligible preps// more…

Twice The Appeal caps unappealing weekend// Big Guns Uncle Mo and Soldat work

Summary:

Long shot Twice The Appeal crawled home in 40 seconds in the final 3 furlongs to win the Sunland Derby. He and Astrology earned enough to book a trip to Louisville, but like other winners from this weekend don’t figure to have many backers at the betting window// Many important workouts today:  Early Kentucky Derby favorite Uncle Mo worked in company and took some dirt in the face.  Todd Pletcher was pleased with his response, but not thrilled with the work by his stablemate Stay Thirsty.  He seemed “intimidated” by struggling to never catch his older workmate. Pletcher is considering blinkers for the Florida Derby.  Soldat, another probable for the Florida Derby, impressed his trainer Kiaran McLaughlin in the manner he ran his 5 panels// The winners from yesterday’s Louisiana Derby and Spiral Stakes will race next in the Kentucky Derby. Pants On Fire, the winner in the Bayou, earned a 94 Beyer fig while Animal Kingdom gets a 92 from the Spiral.  2^nd and 3^rd place Nehro and Mucho Macho Man in Louisiana came out well and should go to the Derby.  Decisive Moment also earns a spot in the Derby gate with his second place money at Turfway// Mike Watchmaker from The Daily Racing Form sums up the weekend pretty nicely in the last article below// more…

3 big preps, 0 to get excited about: Pants On Fire and Animal Kingdom guaranteed for Derby gate and long odds// Sweet Ducky disappoints

Summary:

While the finish of the Louisiana Derby was exciting, the race as a whole was not impressive.  Pants On Fire tracked average fractions and fought on to win. Mucho Macho Man, who apparently lost a shoe, was in a perfect spot to pounce.  Elite Alex, who most everyone thinks ran the best race by closing like a freight train, probably won’t have the earnings to make the Derby gate unless his connections decide to squeeze him into a late prep. The most noteworthy accomplishment came from the winning jockey, Rosie Napravnik, who was the first woman jockey to win the Louisiana Derby in 98 years and could be the first to win the big one.  Second place Nehro is headed for the Arkansas Derby// In the interesting undercard allowance, much-hyped Bind couldn’t hold off Prime Cut.  The final time was less than a quarter second off the track record// As far as chasing the Derby goes, the lone contender in the UAE Derby, Sweet Ducky finished second-to-last.  No word from his trainer, but it looks like a trip back to the States will be ruled out// Animal Kingdom took the Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes.  The son of Leroidesanimaux is probably another not to get too excited about for May 7^th.  He seems best suited for turf/poly over true dirt.  Favorite Positive Response had no response by finishing 8^th// Swift Warrior wins the undercard Rushaway Stakes at Turfway. He’s now headed for the Bluegrass Stakes. All this poly, all this mediocrity… the Florida Derby can’t come soon enough.

Prado flies in to take Machen for a spin, 5 others work for La Derby// Sweet Ducky not off the Derby Trail just yet// UAE Derby Set...

Summary:

Six Louisiana Derby contenders worked today. Longshot Populist Politics gets the bullet but Neil Howard’s Machen and Wilkinson were sharp too. Edgar Prado flew in to test-ride Machen for the first time// Kiaran McLaughlin describes more of Florida Derby-bound Soldat’s work yesterday.  Apparently he took a lot of dirt in the face by design, which seems like a smart tactic looking forward// Sweet Ducky’s trainer doesn’t rule out the Derby if he finishes well in Dubai’s UAE Derby.  That field is set as well// The Wood Memorial looks like it now has a chance of filling for Uncle Mo. Two horses originally scheduled to go elsewhere, Norman Asbjornson and Toby’s Corner, may now stay in New York.  Bob Baffert also announced Jaycito will join the cast// The familiar debate about The Factor dominated news again today. Will he get the distance, and more specifically can he win the Derby with his running style?// It’s time to start looking more closely at the graded earnings list. The top 20 qualify for the Derby.  The Factor jumped to #5 with his Rebel win.  Some big names that need an extra boost: Astrology, Sway Away, and Wilkinson.  Even Brethren and Archarcharch may need more dough// An array of new rankings released today, including celebrity Bo Derek who likes The Factor// I failed to note MacLean’s Music’s impressive maiden win at Santa Anita on Saturday (video at bottom of post).  He earned a whopping 114 Beyer which is highest first-time number ever. No word on his next start and if the Derby Trail is even in the cards// more…

Stay Thirsty may be too much of a wildcard// Coa gets his dough// San Felipe field begins to take shape// Bind works

Summary:

Some handicappers (and Ragozin Numbers) are saying don’t get too chalky in the Gotham.  The thought is that Stay Thirsty is too much of a wild card at the price// Baffert says The Factor doesn’t get tired and threw in the Rebel as an option along with Sunland Derby// Meanwhile the probable field for next weekend’s San Felipe is getting clearer// Jeremy Plonk’s weekly review gives Soldat a #1 ranking.  More of a “what have you done for me lately” choice than anything else.  Nonetheless he brings up an interesting comparison between Soldat and Derby winners Barbaro and Big Brown being labeld “turf” horses early in their career// Bind shows up on the work tab again.  Still hoping fever spreads after his next allowance.

Stay Thirsty 9-5 favorite in Gotham. Astrology in, Uncle Brent out of Rebel. Mucho confirmed for Louisiana Derby. Any real interest in a Swale Stakes “Challenge”?

Summary:

Nine entries drawn for Gotham, including Stay Thirsty// Many future race decisions were made: Astrology to Rebel, Mucho Macho Man to Louisiana Derby, and maiden winner Albergatti to San Felipe// Uncle Brent has new trainer and will not go in Rebel// The most interesting story from today is the “Swale Challenge” idea from the owner of Flashpoint.  While a matchup with the Factor would be nice, I’m not sure that’s worth one million for Gulfstream.   We’re not talking about Zenyatta vs. Rachel.  Many general racing fans have probably never heard of these three year olds. Also, who is going to back either of those horses in the Derby coming off of two sprint preps and questions surrounding pedigree?

Rebel to get new shooter// Astrology stretches to 6 panels// Toby’s Corner the Gotham Sleeper?

Summary: Crossbow officially off the trai// There will be another maiden winner thrown to the Derby Prep wolves- and another Uncle. Uncle Brent most likely will be asked to stretch from his 6 furlong 89 Beyer performance last Saturday to the Rebel Stakes// Interesting stat in the first article below. 8 of the 11 graded Derby preps have been won by horses who were first or second at every call.  While that leads to the obvious point of looking for more patient runners, it must be noted some of those winners have sat off the pace in earlier races (Soldat, Brethren).  Plus, others in that group of 8 may prove to be sprinters (The Factor, Flashpoint)//

Not everyone sold on Soldat. To Honor got what he needed? Gotham field comes into focus. Rankings shuffled. Blazing works out West.

Summary:

Joe Drape at the New York Times expounds on Bill Mott’s old-school training technique with To Honor and Serve and why we shouldn’t be concerned with his third place finish.  However, even Mott admits he wasn’t expecting To Honor to come up that short, which makes the Florida Derby all the more interesting//  Speaking of the Florida Derby, it seems to be the next spot for Soldat, To Honor, and Sweet Ducky while Gourmet Dinner could be headed to the easier West division//Steve Haskin believes Soldat’s action better on turf// Several new rankings released with a lot more variance on who’s #2// Blazing works out West// Gotham up next…

Uncle Mo and Stay Thirsty go toe-to-toe. Beyer numbers released. Next race plans announced for several.

Summary:

Uncle Mo and Stay Thirsty worked in tandem and both fired bullets.  Once again Stay Thirsty continues to match or one-up Mo// Beyer numbers were released: Soldat 96, Flashpoint 102. A little surprised Soldat didn’t break 100, especially considering the competition and the final time was two seconds faster than the earlier allowance.  I do realize there’s a lot more that goes into it// I thought (and read) more about To Honor and Serve.  It’s pretty simple: He ran like a horse that hasn’t raced since November and only had six 5 furlong workouts.  Why should I have expected another romp? Can’t wait for the next.

Soldat all that// Can Flashpoint go the distance?// What to make of the ungraders?

Summary:

So, how do we sort it all out?// Soldat was dominating and proved himself as the real deal, that’s easy… but To Honor and Serve? Did he need the race or is he regressing from 2YO form? Or, did he just not face much in 2010 (yes I’m not forgetting Macho)?// How excited should we be for Flashpoint, at least for the Derby?  Can a horse bred for one turn take it to two?// What to make of the ungraded races- Borderland, Gentilly, Rainbow, Turf Paradise, Miracle Wood? I don’t see anything to get excited about// Does Arch Traveler have enough time to catch up?//