To Honor and Mott featured// PrePeg shoots a bullet for Santa Anita Derby// Florida Derby picks

Summary:

I’ve posted a lot of handicapper picks for the Florida Derby over the last several days.  In a profession geared towards taking a stance even if it means ignoring other reasonable possibilities, it’s refreshing to read Gary West’s analysis. With young three-year-olds still maturing, going new distances, and experiencing different pace scenarios he says it would be best if experts sometimes said, “I don’t know”.  He still makes his picks in the end, like any handicapper should, but it illustrates the numerous angles one can take in the Florida Derby// Several nice background articles on To Honor And Serve and Bill Mott today// A decision has finally been made for Jaycito. Trainer Bob Baffert has opted to stay home in the Santa Anita Derby.  He’ll face Premier Pegasus who worked a brisk 5 furlongs in 59:20 today.  It was the fastest of all works at the distance. Trainer Myung Cho says the long delay between his last race and first work was by design seeing as the horse routinely gallops 2 miles.  There are some really striking photos of PrePeg and other Santa Anita Derby contenders this morning taken by Alex Evers. I’ve put the link below// Watch Me Go, who didn’t enter the Florida Derby as planned due to a scope with mucus, may go the Illinois Derby route. That race’s field is questionable- yes, both in field size and overall Kentucky Derby potential// more…

Zito oozing with confidence ahead of Florida Derby, Ragozin numbers suggest otherwise// KDFW Pool open, The Factor bet down

Summary:

Nick Zito couldn’t be higher on a horse than Dialed In.  If the “Gift from God” doesn’t come flying home to win the Florida Derby be prepared for a signature depressing post-race interview from the trainer// Zito must not be a Rag guy. According to Ragozin numbers, Stay Thirsty could be the value play of the Florida Derby and Dialed In is a toss-out.  Handicapper picks are pretty spread out between the three main attractions and Flashpoint// The Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool #3 opened today with Uncle Mo and The Factor getting the most attention.  The latter is currently down to 9-2 from starting at 6-1// For the Arkansas Derby, Caleb’s Posse and The Factor are confirmed// Impressive allowance winner Prime Cut could go to the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland and look to the Preakness after that.  Wilkinson, sixth-place in the Louisiana Derby may go to the Blue Grass Stakes// more…

Florida Derby features strongest field yet, pace should be hot// Comma To The Top removed from KDFW Pool

Summary:

Today’s Florida Derby draw made if official: we have the strongest Derby prep of the season thus far. Soldat, Dialed In, and To Honor And Serve offer three marquee names in one race, something we’re not used to seeing in recent three-year-old stakes. With the connections of Flashpoint deciding to stretch out the distance-questionable colt, the pace scenario just got a lot quicker and more beneficial for closer Dialed In. While many believe Flashpoint should not have entered, it will be good for handicappers with an eye towards the Derby to see how favored Soldat handles a stiff pace on dirt// Although Comma To The Top has been removed from the Future Pool in light of comments from his trainer not intending to run in the Derby, don’t rule him out completely.  There are several quotes from the article below that suggest the door is not closed// For the Wood Memorial starring Uncle Mo, it looks like only 4 total probable entries.  However, the field size could expand up to 10 if and when some trainers make up their minds// Works today for the Arkansas Derby included J P’s Gusto in a bullet with blinkers and Sway Away.  D. Wayne Lukas is high on Saratoga Red for that race// The purse for the Illinois Derby was raised to $300,000.  Might not seem like much, but it may make a difference once the dust settles for graded earnings// We knew there was a possibility European runner Master Of Hounds could join the Derby, but now there is another “potential” entrant from across seas in War Pact.  However, I’m not exactly sure why that’s a story seeing as he has $0 graded earnings and no plans to run in any eligible preps// more…

Churchill releases slew of Derby updates// Connections undecided on Flashpoint// Mystery solved on Gourmet Dinner

Summary:

Churchill Downs released three important Derby elements today- #1: the updated graded earnings list, which always differs slightly from other unofficial versions floating around.  #2: list of the 13 horses who filled in a late Triple Crown nomination, among them Tampa Bay Derby winner Watch Me Go and Rushaway Stakes winner Swift Warrior.  #3: preliminary odds for Future Pool #3.  Uncle Mo is still the favorite at 3-1 while there were 8 new additions including Premier Pegasus at 8-1 and other surprise Derby prep winners// Mystery solved on Gourmet Dinner, who ran an impressive second place in the Fountain Of Youth.  Brian Zipse spoke with trainer Steve Standridge and learned he’s definitely off the trail with a sore shin// Elite Alex is confirmed for the Arkansas Derby// You gotta love it when trainers and owners say they’re not eyeing the Kentucky Derby.  The connections of Data Link, Flashpoint, and Comma To The Top all claim racing at Churchill on May 7^th is not a priority. Most of the reasons are actually logical (distance, surface), but we’ll see if they hold that line after a good performance in an upcoming prep// more…

Dialed In quashes rumors with bullet move// Mucho handicappers don’t like Macho Man in La Derby//

Summary:

Some were concerned with the status of Holy Bull winner Dialed In based on the fact he had not returned to the workout tab since his last allowance race.  Those fears should be eased with his big bullet move at Palm Meadows this morning.  Nick Zito was about as exuberant as he can be and claimed Dialed In came home in a blistering 11.4 seconds// If you run through some of the handicapping articles and videos below for the Louisiana Derby, you’ll see there are several Mucho Macho Man doubters.  Despite being a heavy favorite, handicappers tend to like Nacho Business, Machen, Elite Alex and Wilkinson instead.  Although I’ve been leaning towards Elite Alex, Dick Downey notes he missed a workout two back for reasons unknown// More news and notes on the upcoming Vinery Spiral Stakes, Sunland Derby, and UAE Derby// Elliot Walden at Winstar suggested Cal Nation will take the Bernardini route to the Preakness and revealed Brethren could go to the Santa Anita Derby, although the Arkansas Derby is more likely// more…

The Rebel morning line set, 2 scratches// Uncle Mo looks good on Rag numbers, has a lunatic fan in Iowa// Flashpoint flashy in work...

Summary:

Glint and Dreaminofthewin scratched from tomorrow’s Kentucky Derby prep race The Rebel Stakes. We won’t know Elite Alex’s status until tomorrow// According to Uncle Mo’s adjusted Ragozin number of 4, he’s in perfect position to peak May 7^th.  In his weekly column, Jeremy Plonk disagrees.  He claims if you’re only having two preps they need to be tough.  He must not remember Big Brown’s allowance (or workout) at Gulfstream against 4 horses. Yes there was more pace in that race, but Big Brown was sitting off of it and cruised to a 12 length win// Speaking of Mo (and if you’re into homemade rabid fan videos), be sure to check out the fan video from Iowa on the Zipse At The Derby blog// Flashpoint flashes a bullet and still most likely going to the Swale Stakes. Dutrow is not ruling out the Derby, but I can’t imagine asking a horse to stretch out like that­- in the Derby no less// Sunland Derby and Turfway’s Spiral Stakes probables outlined// more…

Stay Thirsty 9-5 favorite in Gotham. Astrology in, Uncle Brent out of Rebel. Mucho confirmed for Louisiana Derby. Any real interest in a Swale Stakes “Challenge”?

Summary:

Nine entries drawn for Gotham, including Stay Thirsty// Many future race decisions were made: Astrology to Rebel, Mucho Macho Man to Louisiana Derby, and maiden winner Albergatti to San Felipe// Uncle Brent has new trainer and will not go in Rebel// The most interesting story from today is the “Swale Challenge” idea from the owner of Flashpoint.  While a matchup with the Factor would be nice, I’m not sure that’s worth one million for Gulfstream.   We’re not talking about Zenyatta vs. Rachel.  Many general racing fans have probably never heard of these three year olds. Also, who is going to back either of those horses in the Derby coming off of two sprint preps and questions surrounding pedigree?

Rebel to get new shooter// Astrology stretches to 6 panels// Toby’s Corner the Gotham Sleeper?

Summary: Crossbow officially off the trai// There will be another maiden winner thrown to the Derby Prep wolves- and another Uncle. Uncle Brent most likely will be asked to stretch from his 6 furlong 89 Beyer performance last Saturday to the Rebel Stakes// Interesting stat in the first article below. 8 of the 11 graded Derby preps have been won by horses who were first or second at every call.  While that leads to the obvious point of looking for more patient runners, it must be noted some of those winners have sat off the pace in earlier races (Soldat, Brethren).  Plus, others in that group of 8 may prove to be sprinters (The Factor, Flashpoint)//

Not everyone sold on Soldat. To Honor got what he needed? Gotham field comes into focus. Rankings shuffled. Blazing works out West.

Summary:

Joe Drape at the New York Times expounds on Bill Mott’s old-school training technique with To Honor and Serve and why we shouldn’t be concerned with his third place finish.  However, even Mott admits he wasn’t expecting To Honor to come up that short, which makes the Florida Derby all the more interesting//  Speaking of the Florida Derby, it seems to be the next spot for Soldat, To Honor, and Sweet Ducky while Gourmet Dinner could be headed to the easier West division//Steve Haskin believes Soldat’s action better on turf// Several new rankings released with a lot more variance on who’s #2// Blazing works out West// Gotham up next…

Soldat all that// Can Flashpoint go the distance?// What to make of the ungraders?

Summary:

So, how do we sort it all out?// Soldat was dominating and proved himself as the real deal, that’s easy… but To Honor and Serve? Did he need the race or is he regressing from 2YO form? Or, did he just not face much in 2010 (yes I’m not forgetting Macho)?// How excited should we be for Flashpoint, at least for the Derby?  Can a horse bred for one turn take it to two?// What to make of the ungraded races- Borderland, Gentilly, Rainbow, Turf Paradise, Miracle Wood? I don’t see anything to get excited about// Does Arch Traveler have enough time to catch up?//