Hits keep coming: Jaycito out of Santa Anita Derby, To Honor And Serve off trail// Mo show rambles on// Caleb’s Posse works towards last-ditch effort

Summary:

The rigors of the Kentucky Derby trail are starting to materialize.  After Thursday’s dissapointing news on Premier Pegasus, the Santa Anita Derby gets another scratch from the next inline favorite Jaycito.  He’s out with a foot abscess and will try to make the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland instead.  Silver Medallion takes the role of favorite// To Honor And Serve, the impressive 2 year-old and questionable 3 year-old is officially off the trail with a suspensory injury// The press loves Uncle Mo and the articles show it// Caleb’s Posse worked 5 furlongs in standard time ahead of the Arkansas Derby// more…

Dialed In earns 93 Beyer// Blue Grass field looking crowded// The Factor quick in 6 panel workout

Summary:

Dialed In received a 93 Beyer speed figure from his win in Sunday’s Florida Derby.  While that puts him below other contenders’ winning numbers, the Daily Racing Form points out 3 of last 6 Kentucky Derby winners fired sub 100 Beyers in their final preps.  Zito is in no hurry to ship the colt to Kentucky, while second place Shackleford and fourth Soldat could head to Louisville soon.  Stay Thirsty, Uncle Mo’s stablemate who finished an unimpressive 7th, is also pointing for the Derby and will ship to Churchill on Wednesday// Many new rankings today.  Uncle Mo, Premier Pegasus, and Dialed In assume the top three spots in most (including mine), in no particular order.  I’ve noticed Jaycito sits at #4 in several, which is something I’m having a hard time understanding given his bland last performance and horrendous Breeders Cup. The usually glass-half-full Steve Haskin has surprisingly nothing good to say about To Honor and Serve’s Florida Derby, which I tend to agree// 10 to 11 colts are probable for the Blue Grass Stakes.  A majority of those have turf or synthetic backgrounds, which means none would be taken too seriously in the Kentucky Derby, aside from Santiva// Watch Me Go, winner of the Tampa Bay Derby, is definite for the Illinois Derby on Saturday// The latest graded earnings list was released.  It appears the magic number for making the Derby will be around $250,000, but that’s always a moving target.  The connections of Shackleford are keeping fingers crossed for no long shot wins over the next two weekends and that Master Of Hounds and Comma To The Top stay home// more…

Dialed In up in time for Florida Derby, field called into question// Uncle Mo ‘perfect’ in work, favored in KDFW Pool 3

Dialed In wins Florida Derby 4/3/11                                                                                                         Photo: Horsephotos.com

Summary:

General consensus was the Florida Derby offered the most loaded field of all Kentucky Derby preps so far.  General consensus seems to suggest it did not live up to expectations. Yet, peel back the layers and there was more to the outcome than unimpressive splits and dissapointing results by highly touted Derby contenders.  68-to-1 shot Shackleford finished second, and his ability to almost steal the race on the lead combined with his unappreciated past performances were the main reasons some were calling the race a sham. However, dissecting his prior race (with some of the same foes) shows he had excuses: worst post, bad break, raced wide.  He redeemed himself on Sunday by holding off most of a stellar field.  For a horse that showed promise early in the year, he may be peaking at the right time.  Hopefully he has enough earnings to make the Kentucky Derby gate.   

As for the winner, the final time may suggest otherwise, but flip the coin over and you have an impressive closer who did what no other horse was able to do at Gulfstream Sunday: pass all others from starting far off the pace.  As we’ve seen in some recent Kentucky Derbies, that style can be an advantage where the pace is usually strong.  Nick Zito was emotional and as someone who circles the first Saturday of May on the calendar bigger than anyone else, it’s nice to see the trainer have yet another shot.  Soldat and To Honor And Serve, the latter who Garret Gomez stated he could have given a better trip, will most likely move on to the Derby with lighter bandwagons// Travelin Man was a clear winner in the undercard Swale Stakes.  Todd Petcher indicated they'll stretch him out in the Cliff's Edge Derby Trial, which means no Derby Fever// Uncle Mo worked a quick 4 furlongs in 48.20 today in preparation for Saturday’s Wood Memorial.  Pletcher called it “perfect” and also sent out Kentucky Derby contender Brethren who worked the fastest of all others at 5 furlongs// Speaking of Uncle Mo, he closed as the 3-1 favorite in the Kentucky Derby Future Pool. Dialed In went all the way down to 5-1, which is probably close to what you’ll get on Derby Day// Wilburn, a popular recent maiden winner from Santa Anita, didn’t like dirt in his face from his allowance test and finished off the board// more…

To Honor and Mott featured// PrePeg shoots a bullet for Santa Anita Derby// Florida Derby picks

Summary:

I’ve posted a lot of handicapper picks for the Florida Derby over the last several days.  In a profession geared towards taking a stance even if it means ignoring other reasonable possibilities, it’s refreshing to read Gary West’s analysis. With young three-year-olds still maturing, going new distances, and experiencing different pace scenarios he says it would be best if experts sometimes said, “I don’t know”.  He still makes his picks in the end, like any handicapper should, but it illustrates the numerous angles one can take in the Florida Derby// Several nice background articles on To Honor And Serve and Bill Mott today// A decision has finally been made for Jaycito. Trainer Bob Baffert has opted to stay home in the Santa Anita Derby.  He’ll face Premier Pegasus who worked a brisk 5 furlongs in 59:20 today.  It was the fastest of all works at the distance. Trainer Myung Cho says the long delay between his last race and first work was by design seeing as the horse routinely gallops 2 miles.  There are some really striking photos of PrePeg and other Santa Anita Derby contenders this morning taken by Alex Evers. I’ve put the link below// Watch Me Go, who didn’t enter the Florida Derby as planned due to a scope with mucus, may go the Illinois Derby route. That race’s field is questionable- yes, both in field size and overall Kentucky Derby potential// more…

Churchill releases slew of Derby updates// Connections undecided on Flashpoint// Mystery solved on Gourmet Dinner

Summary:

Churchill Downs released three important Derby elements today- #1: the updated graded earnings list, which always differs slightly from other unofficial versions floating around.  #2: list of the 13 horses who filled in a late Triple Crown nomination, among them Tampa Bay Derby winner Watch Me Go and Rushaway Stakes winner Swift Warrior.  #3: preliminary odds for Future Pool #3.  Uncle Mo is still the favorite at 3-1 while there were 8 new additions including Premier Pegasus at 8-1 and other surprise Derby prep winners// Mystery solved on Gourmet Dinner, who ran an impressive second place in the Fountain Of Youth.  Brian Zipse spoke with trainer Steve Standridge and learned he’s definitely off the trail with a sore shin// Elite Alex is confirmed for the Arkansas Derby// You gotta love it when trainers and owners say they’re not eyeing the Kentucky Derby.  The connections of Data Link, Flashpoint, and Comma To The Top all claim racing at Churchill on May 7^th is not a priority. Most of the reasons are actually logical (distance, surface), but we’ll see if they hold that line after a good performance in an upcoming prep// more…

Gomez’s agent wouldn’t trade places with The Factor// Astrology going to Sunland Derby// Louisiana Derby coming up light...

Summary:

Garret Gomez’s colorful agent Ron Anderson makes some bold statements on Sway Away vs. The Factor in the upcoming Rebel Stakes. He says The Factor “is not going to outrun” him, which I actually tend to agree.  The Daily Racing Form claims Sway Away could be on the pace based on his June 2010 maiden, which doesn’t really hold up considering he’s been off of it his last two races// Speaking of the Rebel, it’s worth noting Dreaminforthewin has been battling a quarter crack// We have what seems to be a definite destination for Astrology: The Sunland Derby March 26. That leaves only 3 weeks between his next possible prep and then another 4 weeks for the Derby.  Many think that’s too tight, especially coming off a long layoff// Gomez gets the mount on To Honor and Serve which makes sense considering Johnny Velazquez has Mo duties // Steve Crist says don’t worry about Uncle Mo’s low Beyer from the Timely Writer// Norman Asbjornson, 2^nd place in the Gotham, is headed to the Wood Memorial and gets a late Triple Crown nomination//For more in-depth reporting on the connections of Premier Pegasus be sure to check out the two part article from Stride Live// // More fallout on the sale of Sweet Ducky to controversial Chechan President.  The original owners are claiming they had no clue.

Watch Me Go 'all in'// Sweet Ducky Dubai bound//Mark Cuban talks Derby// Next race plans set for many// Reprized Halo wins OBS// Busy work tab highlighted by bullet from To Honor and Serve

Summary:

Watch Me Go winning Tampa Bay Derby      horsephotos.com

Loads of new Kentucky Derby contender rankings today.  For a guy that sold his company to Yahoo for over 5 billion it shouldn’t come as a surprise that Mark Cuban has Soldat at the top of his list.  However it’s surprising anyone has Mo as low as 4// The Florida Derby lost a serious contender in Sweet Ducky due to being sold to an unknown buyer. He’s headed to Dubai. Tampa Bay Derby winner Watch Me Go, who was nominated to the Triple Crown Sunday for $6,000, may fill the void// I touched on some Beyer numbers yesterday and today we have the BRIS speed ratings: 95 and 100 for Uncle Mo and Premier Pegasus respectively// Pletcher says he’s still leaning towards the Wood for Uncle Mo’s next start, but left the door open for the Florida Derby// The Santa Anita Derby will probably get the top 3 finishers from the San Felipe, although there is a slight possibility Premier Pegasus could go elsewhere// Brethren will go in the Arkansas Derby// Silver Medallion is most likely going to the Louisiana Derby//  Another busy workout day.  To Honor and Serve fires a bullet on the deep Payson surface, while 2 work for the Rebel// Reprized Halo wins the always odd OBS Championship. Noticed he finished last in his last allowance with Dialed In. No indications of heading to the real trail…yet.

Not everyone sold on Soldat. To Honor got what he needed? Gotham field comes into focus. Rankings shuffled. Blazing works out West.

Summary:

Joe Drape at the New York Times expounds on Bill Mott’s old-school training technique with To Honor and Serve and why we shouldn’t be concerned with his third place finish.  However, even Mott admits he wasn’t expecting To Honor to come up that short, which makes the Florida Derby all the more interesting//  Speaking of the Florida Derby, it seems to be the next spot for Soldat, To Honor, and Sweet Ducky while Gourmet Dinner could be headed to the easier West division//Steve Haskin believes Soldat’s action better on turf// Several new rankings released with a lot more variance on who’s #2// Blazing works out West// Gotham up next…

Uncle Mo and Stay Thirsty go toe-to-toe. Beyer numbers released. Next race plans announced for several.

Summary:

Uncle Mo and Stay Thirsty worked in tandem and both fired bullets.  Once again Stay Thirsty continues to match or one-up Mo// Beyer numbers were released: Soldat 96, Flashpoint 102. A little surprised Soldat didn’t break 100, especially considering the competition and the final time was two seconds faster than the earlier allowance.  I do realize there’s a lot more that goes into it// I thought (and read) more about To Honor and Serve.  It’s pretty simple: He ran like a horse that hasn’t raced since November and only had six 5 furlong workouts.  Why should I have expected another romp? Can’t wait for the next.

Soldat all that// Can Flashpoint go the distance?// What to make of the ungraders?

Summary:

So, how do we sort it all out?// Soldat was dominating and proved himself as the real deal, that’s easy… but To Honor and Serve? Did he need the race or is he regressing from 2YO form? Or, did he just not face much in 2010 (yes I’m not forgetting Macho)?// How excited should we be for Flashpoint, at least for the Derby?  Can a horse bred for one turn take it to two?// What to make of the ungraded races- Borderland, Gentilly, Rainbow, Turf Paradise, Miracle Wood? I don’t see anything to get excited about// Does Arch Traveler have enough time to catch up?//

Day of questions: How cranked up will To Honor And Serve be?// Will Crossbow scratch?// Will Dialed In and Uncle Mo meet March 12?

Summary:

Today’s Kentucky Derby Trail news was of the vague and “possible” variety. Typical on the eve of big races// Crossbow may scratch tomorrow in the Hutcheson////To Honor and Serve does not necessarily have to win the Fountain of Youth.  That leaves us handicappers to wonder how cranked up he’ll be// Timely Writer Stakes a possibility for Dialed In (which would mean two top five Kentucky Derby contenders would square off in an ungraded race in March… crazy)//

Entries:

A link to free PP’s, articles, video, and handicapper picks for tomorrows graded Fountain of Youth and Hutcheson can be found here

Articles:

·       In Fountain of Youth, hope springs eternal (NY Times)

Odds set for Fountain of Youth and Hutcheson// Spotlight shifts to Soldat, other preps// Handicapper picks//

Summary:

While To Honor and Serve grabbed all of the headlines yesterday, it was the second favorite Soldat with the most today.  After watching some of the PP video (here by the way) I’m still more excited to see To Honor.  I’m not sure I’ve seen a horse move with the same action.  He almost looks like a gazelle and seems to do it with very little effort// Maiden winner Travelin’ Man is the morning line favorite for the Huthcheson.  Surprising considering he’s not even on some contender lists// Other races picked up some ink too: Borderland Derby, Miracle Wood, Turf Paradise Derby, and the allowance on the undercard at Gulfstream.  For some reason, I’m just not excited about those and don’t see a legitimate Derby contender emerging//

Upcoming Races:

The upcoming page is chock full of info for the Fountain of Youth and Hutcheson.  Links to free PP’s, videos, articles, picks, etc.  Check it out here

Articles:

·       To Honor and Serve makes first of two Derby preps in FOY (DRF)

·       Soldat taking next step toward Derby (Bloodhorse)

·       Timing’s right for Soldat (Gulfstream Park News)

·       Soldat renews Derby dream for McLaughlin (DRF)

·       Pick the finishers in Fountain Of Youth (Bloodhorse)

To Honor And Serve gets all the attention in Fountain of Youth, Gourmet Dinner ready, Hutcheson should be hot, more on past weekend runners

Summary:

The Fountain of Youth drew 8 entries, including #2 CTD Ranked To Honor and Serve.  Can’t wait to see his 3YO form against some promising up-and-comers.  Gourmet Dinner fires a bullet for it as well// The Hutcheson is also looking like an interesting race with a mix contestants either cutting back in distance or moving up in class.  I have a sneaky feeling one of Pletcher’s will make a statement// Yesterday’s decision on racing Uncle Mo in the new Timely Writer continues to be debated//

Entries:

Fountain Of Youth and Hutcheson Stakes entries, videos, articles and a link to PPs can be found here

Borderland Derby entries can be found here

Archarcharch takes odd Southwest (video), To Honor And Serve blazes, The Trail loses one and possibly two others

Summary:

What a weird Southwest. Horses crammed on the rail (Caleb’s Posse), horses going 6 wide (Elite Alex), horses getting cut off (J P’s Gusto). On top of that, one of the worst race calls I’ve heard in quite some time// The Trail lost one, maybe three today.  Clubhouse Ride is out, Tiz Blessed is being examined, and indications are that Bind will not be pointed// To Honor and Serve fires a bullet in an unreported work from yesterday//Mucho Macho Man back in Florida with FLA or Louisiana Derby next//Zito not pointing for Preakness (and the 5.5 mil bonus) specifically for Dialed In, who is skipping the Fountain of Youth.

Risen Star set, busy workout day, Machen videos reviewed, The Factor ready to roll, new rankings

Summary:

Ten entered for Risen Star.  I’m excited to see Machen step up, but do have some concern for his recent running style// Tons of works today.  Interesting how much ink J P’s Gusto gets.  I’m sure the soap opera of a training switch helps, but To Honor and Serve is #2 on a lot of rankings and gets no story?// The close of nominations and last weekend’s three preps seems to have kick-started the national talk on Derby. Joe Drape at the New York Times and several others write their inaugural Trail articles and rankings// Silver Medallion may run in Dubai next- if he does should I remove him off the contender list automatically?// It appears all systems go for The Factor in the San Vicente.  Brisnet calls it a bullet, but with only 3 others going 7F we’ll just call it a nice one.

Brethren on the outside in the Sam Davis, Tapizar may not be primed, Asmussen gets the old Pletcher tag

Summary:

Brethren on the outside in the Sam F. Davis, which brings out 10 total entries//Everyone thinks the Robert Lewis is a one horse race. However there are indications Tapizar is not coming into the race as buttoned up as he was in the Sham// Asmussen the latest target for “never won a major” //Johnny Velazquez gets the mount on To Honor and Serve//J P’s Gusto settles in//Repole blogs//Splash Point wins an graded race in Dubai//

Three bullets by contenders, Sam F. Davis field comes into focus, trainer plans and more

Summary:

Bullet works by To Honor and Serve, Awesome Patriot and Justin Phillip.  The field for the Sam F. Davis becomes clearer- Brethren steps up.  Updates on trainer plans for Wilkinson, Toby’s Corner, and Casper’s Touch.